ANALISIS EKSPOR INDONESIA DENGAN NEGARA MITRA DAGANG ASEAN MELALUI PENDEKATAN MODEL GRAVITASI

NURDIN, NURDIN (2019) ANALISIS EKSPOR INDONESIA DENGAN NEGARA MITRA DAGANG ASEAN MELALUI PENDEKATAN MODEL GRAVITASI. Doctoral thesis, Universitas Andalas.

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Abstract

This study aims to determine the gross domestic product variable, transportation cost, handling costs and the implementation of CEPT AFTA which explains Indonesia's export performance with trading partner countries in ASEAN. Methods of analyzing time series and cross section data for 15 years (2003-2017) uses Fixed Effect Model Analysis. The analysis results prove that all hypotheses are accepted. The regression analysis results are positive and significant for the GDPind variable of 20%, GDPj of 21%, and CEPT-AFTA as much as 25%, while the negative and significant influence is the Transport Cost variable as much as 29% and the Handling Cost as much as 23%. All variables are accepted as explanatory predictors in Indonesia's export performance model. R Square value is 93% and the value of S.D. dependent var is 0.83 that shows a valid regression model as a predictor model and only there is 7% that has an influence from other variables not taken into account in this research model. The implications of the results of this study contribute to the development of the gravity theory in regional trade. The results of this study strengthen the gravity theory which calculates economic cost efficiency as an important consideration. The effect of the high cost of transportation and handling between ports will reduce the trading volume of certain commodities (such as Coal, CPO and Crumb Rubber) Keyword: Gravity theory, Gross Domestic Product, Handling Cost, Transportation Cost, CEPT- AFTA.

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