Forecasting the Price of Palm Cooking Oil at Consumer Level in West Sumatra

Meisya, Putri Walita (2024) Forecasting the Price of Palm Cooking Oil at Consumer Level in West Sumatra. D3 thesis, Universitas Andalas.

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Abstract

Palm cooking oil is one of the essential commodities that experienced a price increase in 2022. This study aims to identify the best ARIMA model for estimating palm cooking oil prices in Padang City and Bukittinggi City and forecast the palm cooking oil prices using the best model from August 2024 to July 2025. The research employs a documentation method for collecting secondary data, and the study uses ARIMA method for analysis. The study found that the best model for price forecasting to predict the price of palm cooking oil in west Sumatra could be divided into sic categories: ARIMA (1,1,1) for Bulk Cooking Oil in Padang City with a forecast price range of Rp. 15.603 to Rp. 20.303; ARIMA (0,1,2) for Cooking Oil A in Padang City with a forecast price range of Rp. 17.366 to Rp. 23.085; ARIMA (0,1,2) for Cooking Oil B in Padang City with a forecast price range of Rp. 15.129 to Rp. 22.484; ARIMA (0,1,1) for Bulk Cooking Oil in Bukittinggi City with a forecast price range of Rp. 14.769 to Rp. 20.055; ARIMA (4,2,0) for Cooking Oil A in Bukittinggi City with a forecast price range of Rp. 17.178 to Rp. 26.995; and ARIMA (0,1,2) for Cooking Oil B in Bukittinggi City with a forecast price range of Rp. 15.408 to Rp. 24.414. The price forecasting analysis results can be a reference for the government when making price forecasting for the future

Item Type: Thesis (D3)
Supervisors: Prof. Ir. Rahmat Syahni Zakaria, M.S., M.Sc., Ph.D.
Uncontrolled Keywords: ARIMA, Bukittinggi City, Forecasting, palm cooking oil prices, Padang City
Subjects: S Agriculture > S Agriculture (General)
Depositing User: s1 agribisnis agribisnis
Date Deposited: 21 Jan 2025 06:53
Last Modified: 21 Jan 2025 06:53
URI: http://scholar.unand.ac.id/id/eprint/486355

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