Price Integration Analysis of Maize, Feed, and Layer Chicken Eggs in West Sumatra

Hulina, Syifa (2026) Price Integration Analysis of Maize, Feed, and Layer Chicken Eggs in West Sumatra. S1 thesis, Universitas Andalas.

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Abstract

Maize is a strategic commodity that serves as the primary raw material for poultry feed, particularly in the layer chicken industry. Fluctuations in maize prices directly affect feed production costs, which subsequently influence the prices of layer chicken egg. This study aims to examine long-run and short-run price integration among maize, feed, and layer chicken eggs in West Sumatra, as well as to assess analyze the impact of maize price shocks on feed prices and feed price shocks on egg prices. The study employs monthly time series data from January 2020 to December 2024 obtained from Statistics Indonesia and the Directorate General of Livestock and Animal Health. The analytical methods include the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), Impulse Response Function (IRF), and Variance Decomposition (VD). The results show that the three commodities are integrated in the long run, as indicated by the Johansen co-integration test. In the short run, maize prices are found to be the main driver of feed prices, with positive effects persisting for up to three periods. The IRF results show that shocks to maize price, generate a positive and persistent response in feed prices. The VD results reveal that maize prices have a greater contribution to variation in egg prices (33.4%) compared to feed prices (3.5%), indicating imperfect price transmission. Therefore, this study recommends stabilizing maize price stabilization as key strategy for maintaining egg price stability in West Sumatra.

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