The Influence of Macroeconomic Factors on Employment Opportunity in Indonesia

Putri, Syahirah Dzakiyyah (2026) The Influence of Macroeconomic Factors on Employment Opportunity in Indonesia. S1 thesis, Universitas Andalas.

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Abstract

This undergraduate thesis, examines the relationship betweenmacroeconomic variables and job creation. Grounded in the KeynesianEmployment Theory, and supported by the Structural Change and NeoclassicalEmployment theories, the study analyzes how macroeconomic dynamics affect thelabor market. Utilizing a quantitative approach with time-series data spanning from1981 to 2024, the research employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL)method to estimate short-run and long-run relationships. The variables investigatedinclude Economic Growth, Industrialization, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), andGross Capital Formation (GCF) against employment opportunities. The resultsreveal that economic growth exhibits a negative long-run effect, confirming thepresence of jobless growth, despite showing a positive short-run effect. Conversely,GCF demonstrates a positive long-run impact on employment generation.Industrialization and FDI do not show significant effects on employment.Consequently, the study recommends prioritizing inclusive, employment-intensivegrowth and productive capital formation over mere aggregate economic growth.Furthermore, industrial and investment policies must deliberately consider theiremployment-generating capacities.

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