Analysis of Potential Gains Export of Indonesia to 5 Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) Member Countries

Azizah, Nur (2024) Analysis of Potential Gains Export of Indonesia to 5 Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) Member Countries. S1 thesis, Universitas Andalas.

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Abstract

Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is a free trade agreement between the 10 member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and five free trade trading partners outside the ASEAN region: China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand which covers 30 percent of the world economy, 30 percent of the world population, and more than 2.2 billion potential customers. RCEP controls 29 percent of the world's GDP with a total trade value of more than 10.6 trillion US dollars. RCEP is considered as the largest trade agreement in world history outside the World Trade Organization (WTO). RCEP focused on enhancing market access, trade facilitation, and cooperation across various sectors, including goods, services, investment, and intellectual property rights. Indonesia as negotiation coordinator advocated for market access for developing countries, aiming to reduce trade barriers like tariffs and regulation. This research determined macroeconomic factors that Indonesia’s exports on 5 RCEP non-ASEAN member countries to examines the potential gains export of Indonesia on 5 RCEP non-ASEAN member countries with Gravity Model. The estimation model used is Fixed Effect Model (FEM) with panel data from 1989-2021. The results of the estimated coefficient are than used determined GDP per capita Indonesia, GDP per capita 5 RCEP non- ASEAN, openness of trade Indonesia, openness of trade 5 RCEP non-ASEAN, and nominal reciprocal rate of exchange has positive correlation with exports Indonesia. Remoteness has negative correlation. P/A (potential export) ratio greater than 1 indicated room export growth. The highest potential exports ratio values are New Zealand with the value 1.165 and Australia is 1.106. South Korea, Japan, and China has potential exports Indonesia with the value less than 1. This means Indonesia has better for exports growth in New Zealand and Australia.

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