FORECASTING THE SELLING PRICE OF SHALLOTS (Allium ascalonicum L.) AT FARMER LEVEL (CASE STUDY IN BASO DISTRICT AGAM REGENCY WEST SUMATERA)

SHERLY, DWI UTAMI (2023) FORECASTING THE SELLING PRICE OF SHALLOTS (Allium ascalonicum L.) AT FARMER LEVEL (CASE STUDY IN BASO DISTRICT AGAM REGENCY WEST SUMATERA). Diploma thesis, UNIVERSITAS ANDALAS.

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Abstract

Most horticulture commodities fluctuate in price, including shallots shown in the Baso District. This research aims to describe the profile and characteristics of shallot farming in Baso District, identify and estimate the best model for shallot price forecasting at the farmer level of Baso District, and forecast the shallot price from January 2023 to December 2023. The research method used is the survey research method with descriptive analysis using the ARIMA method. The data was collected using questionnaires and documentation. The result shows that the farmers aged 24 to 73 cultivate their land with an average shallot productivity of 6,441 tons/ha. The best model to predict the selling price of shallots is ARIMA (5,0,6), which has the smallest MAPE value of 24.38647, significant in the T-test, has the most considerable R2 value and has the smallest AIC and SC values. The model estimated that there would be a decrease of the shallot’s price to Rp 8,389.94/kg in February 2023, an increase of Rp 11,365.73/kg in March, and then a decrease until May 2023 of Rp 8,152.93/kg, an increase would reach Rp 12,263.06/kg in July 2023, and lastly it would decrease in August 2023 in the price of Rp 11,810.38/kg. The model also forecasts that at the end of the year, the price of shallots at the farmer level may increase from Rp 14,268.01/kg to Rp 19,203.25/kg in September until December 2023.

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